As climate change drives rising temperatures and more frequent droughts, forests across Central Europe are becoming increasingly vulnerable to pests like the bark beetle – a tiny insect causing massive ecological and economic damage. Conventional satellite-based monitoring systems detect infestations only after trees have suffered significant damage, making timely intervention impossible.
Now, an interdisciplinary student team from the TUM School of Engineering and Design has developed a pioneering solution. As part of the Earth-Oriented Space Science and Technology (ESPACE) master’s program, five students created a machine learning model that forecasts bark beetle outbreaks one week ahead with remarkable precision.
Under the project leadership of Dr. Thomas Gruber, Chair of Astronomical and Physical Geodesy, the team members – Adesh Phalphale (Space Engineering), Ankur Giri (Computer Science), Heba Gaballa (Space Systems Engineering), Janina Fraas (Meteorology), and Miaoxi Chen (Data Science and Ecology) – fused hyperspectral and multispectral satellite data (DESIS and Sentinel-2), meteorological data (ERA5-Land), and pheromone trap counts from over 280 locations across Bavaria.
The results are clear: combining satellite imagery with weather data significantly improves prediction accuracy. This innovative data fusion approach is the first of its kind for bark beetle forecasting.
The Bavarian State Institute of Forestry (LWF) provided the data and supported the project with expert insights. Forestry professionals were impressed by the model’s high accuracy and praised its focus on prediction rather than detection – a major advancement over previous approaches.
The project was developed during an interdisciplinary ESPACE seminar and submitted to the ACHIEVED Competition 2025 hosted by the Space Generation Advisory Council. The final round took place online during the 23rd Space Generation Congress in Sydney, Australia, where the team “Crop Cosmos” won first prize. Congratulations!
Contact the project team: cropcosmos(at)gmail.com
Space Technology Meets Environmental Science
The Master’s program Earth-Oriented Space Science and Technology M.Sc. trains the next generation of experts at the intersection of space technology, satellite data analysis, and environmental applications. This two-year, English-taught program brings together students from diverse academic backgrounds – including Climate Studies, Aerospace Engineering, Data Science, and Computer Science – and combines technical and scientific disciplines.
ESPACE stands for an interdisciplinary and international approach: Students learn how to integrate cutting-edge satellite and Earth observation systems with engineering expertise and scientific analysis to tackle global challenges such as climate change, resource management, and environmental monitoring.